Simplify forecast panel and extend horizon

app.py

@@ -243,7 +243,7 @@ def get_exercise_progress_for_user(person_id, exercise_id):
     degree = request.args.get('degree', type=int, default=1)
     forecast_enabled = request.args.get('forecast', '').lower() in ('1', 'true', 'yes', 'on')
     forecast_weeks = request.args.get('forecast_weeks', type=int, default=8)
-    forecast_weeks = max(4, min(forecast_weeks, 26))
+    forecast_weeks = max(4, min(forecast_weeks, 52))
     forecast_target_reps = request.args.get('forecast_reps', type=int)
     if forecast_target_reps is not None:
         forecast_target_reps = max(1, min(forecast_target_reps, 20))

routes/workout.py

@@ -303,7 +303,7 @@ def get_exercise_history(person_id, exercise_id):
     source_topset_id = request.args.get('source_topset_id', type=int)
     forecast_enabled = request.args.get('forecast', '').lower() in ('1', 'true', 'yes', 'on')
     forecast_weeks = request.args.get('forecast_weeks', type=int, default=8)
-    forecast_weeks = max(4, min(forecast_weeks, 26))
+    forecast_weeks = max(4, min(forecast_weeks, 52))
     forecast_target_reps = request.args.get('forecast_reps', type=int)
     if forecast_target_reps is not None:
         forecast_target_reps = max(1, min(forecast_target_reps, 20))

templates/partials/exercise_history.html

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@
             </button>
         </div>
     </div>
-    {% if best_fit_formula %}
+    {% if best_fit_formula and not forecast_enabled %}
     <h2 class="text-xs font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-4 text-center">
         {{ best_fit_formula.kg_per_week }} kg/week, {{ best_fit_formula.kg_per_month }} kg/month
     </h2>

templates/partials/sparkline.html

@@ -34,6 +34,7 @@ M{% for value, position in lower_points %}{{ (((position * vb_width) + margin) |
 
 {% macro forecast_circles(data_points, details, color) %}
 {% for value, position in data_points %}
+{% if loop.last %}
 {% set x = (position * vb_width)+margin %}
 {% set y = (vb_height - value)+margin %}
 <circle cx="{{ x | int }}" cy="{{ y | int }}" r="1.6" fill="{{ color }}" stroke="{{ color }}"
@@ -43,6 +44,7 @@ M{% for value, position in lower_points %}{{ (((position * vb_width) + margin) |
     data-e1rm="{{ details[loop.index0].e1rm }}"
     data-topset="{{ details[loop.index0].top_set }}"
     data-range="{{ details[loop.index0].range }}"></circle>
+{% endif %}
 {% endfor %}
 {% endmacro %}
 
@@ -102,7 +104,7 @@ M{% for value, position in lower_points %}{{ (((position * vb_width) + margin) |
         </div>
     </div>
     <h2 class="text-xs font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-1 text-center">
-        {% if best_fit_formula %}
+        {% if best_fit_formula and not forecast_enabled %}
         {{ best_fit_formula.kg_per_week }} kg/week, {{ best_fit_formula.kg_per_month }} kg/month
         {% endif %}
     </h2>
@@ -127,43 +129,32 @@ M{% for value, position in lower_points %}{{ (((position * vb_width) + margin) |
         {% endfor %}
     </div>
     {% if forecast_enabled %}
-    <div class="mx-2 mb-3 rounded-xl border {% if forecast.available %}border-emerald-100 bg-emerald-50/70{% else %}border-amber-100 bg-amber-50/70{% endif %} p-3 text-left">
+    <div class="mx-2 mb-3 rounded-xl border {% if forecast.available %}border-emerald-100 bg-emerald-50/70{% else %}border-amber-100 bg-amber-50/70{% endif %} p-2.5 text-left">
         {% if forecast.available %}
-        <div class="flex flex-col sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between gap-2">
+        <div class="flex flex-col sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between gap-1.5">
             <div>
-                <div class="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-emerald-800">E1RM projection</div>
+                <div class="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-emerald-800">Forecast · {{ forecast.horizon_weeks }} weeks</div>
-                <div class="text-sm text-gray-700 mt-0.5">{{ forecast.last_value }}kg now <span class="text-gray-400">→</span> <span class="font-bold text-emerald-800">{{ forecast.projected_value }}kg</span> in {{ forecast.horizon_weeks }} weeks</div>
+                <div class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800 mt-0.5">{{ forecast.projected_value }}kg <span class="text-xs font-normal text-gray-500">projected E1RM</span></div>
             </div>
             <div class="text-left sm:text-right">
-                <div class="text-sm font-semibold {% if forecast.weekly_change >= 0 %}text-emerald-700{% else %}text-rose-700{% endif %}">{% if forecast.weekly_change >= 0 %}+{% endif %}{{ forecast.weekly_change }}kg/week</div>
+                <div class="text-sm font-semibold {% if forecast.projected_change >= 0 %}text-emerald-700{% else %}text-rose-700{% endif %}">{% if forecast.projected_change >= 0 %}+{% endif %}{{ forecast.projected_change }}kg total</div>
                 <div class="text-xs text-gray-500">{{ forecast.confidence }} confidence · {{ forecast.observed_points }} sessions</div>
             </div>
         </div>
         {% if forecast.selected_top_set %}
-        <div class="mt-3 flex flex-col sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between gap-2 rounded-lg border border-emerald-100 bg-white/80 px-3 py-2.5">
+        <div class="mt-2 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2 gap-y-1 rounded-lg bg-white/80 px-2.5 py-2 text-sm">
-            <div class="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
+            <span class="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-500">Top-set guide</span>
-                <div>
+            <span class="font-bold text-gray-800">{{ forecast.selected_top_set.weight_display }}kg × {{ forecast.selected_top_set.repetitions }}</span>
-                    <div class="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-500">Projected top set</div>
+            <span class="text-xs text-gray-500">at the selected rep target · details in History</span>
-                    <div class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800">{{ forecast.selected_top_set.weight_display }}kg × {{ forecast.selected_top_set.repetitions }} reps</div>
-                </div>
-                <div class="text-right text-xs text-gray-500">
-                    <div>Model range</div>
-                    <div class="font-semibold text-emerald-700">{{ forecast.selected_top_set.lower_weight_display }}–{{ forecast.selected_top_set.upper_weight_display }}kg</div>
-                </div>
-            </div>
-            <div class="text-[11px] text-gray-500 sm:text-right">
-                Full rep-to-weight forecast in the table view.<br>
-                Based on {{ forecast.observed_rep_min }}–{{ forecast.observed_rep_max }} reps in view.
-            </div>
         </div>
         {% endif %}
-        <div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mt-3">
+        <div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 mt-2.5">
             <span class="text-xs text-gray-500 mr-1">Horizon</span>
-            {% for weeks in [4, 8, 12, 26] %}
+            {% for weeks, label in forecast_horizons %}
-            <button class="px-2.5 py-1 rounded-md text-xs font-medium {% if forecast_weeks == weeks %}bg-emerald-700 text-white{% else %}bg-white text-gray-600 border border-emerald-200 hover:bg-emerald-100{% endif %}"
+            <button class="px-2 py-0.5 rounded-md text-xs font-medium {% if forecast_weeks == weeks %}bg-emerald-700 text-white{% else %}bg-white text-gray-600 border border-emerald-200 hover:bg-emerald-100{% endif %}"
                 hx-get="{{ url_for('get_exercise_progress_for_user', person_id=person_id, exercise_id=exercise_id, epoch=selected_epoch, forecast='true', forecast_weeks=weeks, forecast_reps=forecast_target_reps) }}"
                 hx-include="#svg-plot-{{ unique_id }} [name='min_date'], #svg-plot-{{ unique_id }} [name='max_date'], #svg-plot-{{ unique_id }} [name='degree']"
-                hx-target="#svg-plot-{{ unique_id }}" hx-swap="outerHTML">{{ weeks }}w</button>
+                hx-target="#svg-plot-{{ unique_id }}" hx-swap="outerHTML">{{ label }}</button>
             {% endfor %}
         </div>
         {% else %}

utils.py

@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ def convert_str_to_date(date_str, format='%Y-%m-%d'):
 def build_forecast(values, dates, horizon_weeks=8, metric='E1RM'):
     """Build a conservative linear forecast from dated exercise observations."""
     try:
-        horizon_weeks = max(4, min(int(horizon_weeks), 26))
+        horizon_weeks = max(4, min(int(horizon_weeks), 52))
     except (TypeError, ValueError):
         horizon_weeks = 8
 
@@ -133,6 +133,7 @@ def build_forecast(values, dates, horizon_weeks=8, metric='E1RM'):
         'last_date': last_date,
         'last_value': round(float(observed_values[-1]), 1),
         'projected_value': round(float(future_values[-1]), 1),
+        'projected_change': round(float(future_values[-1] - observed_values[-1]), 1),
         'weekly_change': round(weekly_change, 1),
         'r_squared': None if r_squared is None else round(r_squared, 2),
         'confidence': confidence,
@@ -249,6 +250,7 @@ def get_exercise_graph_model(title, estimated_1rm, repetitions, weight, start_da
     observed_min_date, observed_max_date = min(start_dates), max(start_dates)
     forecast = build_forecast(estimated_1rm, start_dates, forecast_weeks, metric='E1RM') if forecast_enabled else {'available': False}
     forecast = add_top_set_forecast(forecast, weight, repetitions, forecast_target_reps)
+    forecast_horizons = [(4, '4w'), (8, '8w'), (12, '3m'), (26, '6m'), (52, '1y')]
     chart_max_date = forecast.get('end_date', observed_max_date) if forecast.get('available') else observed_max_date
     total_span = (chart_max_date - observed_min_date).days or 1
 
@@ -398,6 +400,7 @@ def get_exercise_graph_model(title, estimated_1rm, repetitions, weight, start_da
         'forecast_enabled': forecast_enabled,
         'forecast_weeks': forecast_weeks,
         'forecast_target_reps': forecast.get('selected_reps', forecast_target_reps or 5),
+        'forecast_horizons': forecast_horizons,
         'forecast_points': forecast_points,
         'forecast_band_lower': forecast_band_lower,
         'forecast_band_upper': forecast_band_upper,